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What It All Means and Why Chuck Is Well Positioned for Season 4
Opinions and views expressed in this article is solely that of the author.
Ever since the second season there has been a strong fascination about Chuck’s ratings. What do the ratings mean? Are the ratings good enough for another season? Is it time for fans to worry? Time to start up another “Save Chuck†campaign? Short answer: Chuck is doing okay in the ratings. Last nights drop to a 2.2 (still preliminary) is worrisome, but remember it’s still early in the season. Yes Chuck is on the bubble once again, but it’s still a relatively strong performer for NBC.
It’s important to remember that the demographics 18-49 are the most important number to focus on and that’s what I’ll be referring to. Why? That’s what advertisers use to set their ad rates for the upcoming season, thus networks follow suit. Viewership numbers are not entirely useless, but it doesn’t matter much to advertisers. If you want to read more about the ratings and what the numbers mean, head over to TVByTheNumbers.com.
Current ratings
There has been some concern about the recent ratings drop. The charts below show the ratings, in demos and viewership, for season 3 to date.
Now the charts don’t look too good, right? In fact, the charts make it look worse than it really is. What we should be focusing on is episodes 3.03 onward. Why? The first two episodes of Chuck aired on a Sunday, a night with totally different competition and viewership. And as with any premiere episodes, ratings will tend to be inflated, so to speak. It’s only natural for shows in their second outings to drop. This is not unique to Chuck, but quite common amongst the majority of TV shows.
Another important thing to remember is that since NBC scheduled the Sunday premiere event, Nielsen (who provides the ratings) does not add those numbers to the season average since those were “specialsâ€. Only episodes not deemed “specials†(i.e. aired in its regular time-slot) will be counted in the averages. So the averages will not include the first 2 episodes.
Having said that, are the ratings from 3.03 onward ominous? Not necessarily. To date, Chuck is averaging 2.44 in the demos. That makes Chuck the 3rd highest scripted show on NBC, behind The Office and 30 Rock, and the highest rated hour-long scripted programming. It’s amazing that a show, once on the verge of cancellation, has become one of NBC’s few bright spots.
Note: It’s likely that Chuck will not be the highest rated hour-long program post-Olympics with Parenthood debuting after The Biggest Loser (NBC’s most-watched program), getting a significant lead-in to boost/inflate its numbers. Also, Law & Order: SVU will be moving back to 10pm, its rightful place and most likely will have better ratings. This should not affect Chuck in terms of renewal.
Comparing Season 2 & Season 3
Some may argue “but look at the trajectory of the ratings. It’s going down, not stabilizingâ€. This is where looking at past ratings will help put things into perspective.
It’s important to remember that Chuck’s current crop of competition- The Bachelor/Dancing with the Stars, CBS comedies, and House – was only the same post-Super Bowl of last year. Chuck had the courtesy of going up against Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles in fall 2008, a far weaker show compared to House. So, for an apples-to-apples comparison, lets take a look at how Chuck did during the last half of season 2 (2.13-2.22).
From episode 2.13 up to the season 2 finale, Chuck averaged a 2.26 in the demo. Going up against The Bachelor (three episodes), Chuck averaged 2.33. When Dancing with the Stars debuted, Chuck averaged 2.23. The drop you see from 2.15 to 2.16 was due to the debut of DWTS. Every show that night saw drops in their ratings. So that begs the question: Will Chuck face a similar drop in ratings? Most likely, but it’s nothing to be alarmed at. What we can look forward to is that DWTS should not be debuting as strongly as last season. If their fall performance was any indication, DWTS should be weaker this season. Plus, as indicated in the chart, Chuck regained its entire demo that it lost initially to DWTS.
So comparing the ratings, Chuck is currently averaging 2.44 compared to 2.26 during the last half of last season. In terms of viewership, the show gained 770,000 more viewers. Amazingly, Chuck is on par with the first half of the second season when it was up against weaker competition (2.53 vs. 2.5) (6.68 vs. 6.88 million viewers)
More importantly, there’s a trend in the ratings that can be seen in all three season of Chuck.
Chuck Ratings To Date
Note: In season 1, episodes 1.12 and 1.13 aired on a Thursday as a special “Chuck Sandwich†night. Chuck was off the air for 7 weeks and then brought back to finish its episodes during the writers strike.
It’s fascinating that in all three seasons of Chuck, the show has hit a bottom around episode 6. From there, it has slowly increased. Even in the second half of last season, Chuck ended on an uptrend after hitting bottom, yes, at the 6th episode of the second half of the season. Unfortunately, we don’t know if season 3 has seen a bottom yet, and we won’t know for at least a month.
Will season 3 continue the trend of Chuck increasing its ratings as the season progresses? According to past seasons, it should, barring a change in Chuck’s competition.
Chuck has endured a lot of headwinds. It survived the writers strike. It had to deal with FOX moving House opposite of Chuck. It had to deal with President Obama’s news conference, which effectively killed any momentum the show had from the 3D episode. For its premiere this season, Chuck had to deal with the 150th episode of The Simpsons, which FOX moved up to go up against Chuck. FOX also moved up House to compete against the second night of Chuck‘s premiere event, then scheduled the premiere of 24 for the following week. Chuck had to go up against the 100th episode of How I Met Your Mother. And yet, the show just gave those shows the big middle finger. But it does make you wonder what Chuck’s ratings would’ve been had FOX not moved up their two big shows.
The Big Picture
Chuck is one of the few shows on ANY network, to hold its audience from last season. The long break and the new element of the show (Intersect 2.0) did not hurt the show as many had feared. Holding your audience from last season, even if it’s a small but very passionate base like Chuck’s, is a very good thing in the TV industry when year after year there’s less people watching broadcast television.
There are many things working in favor of Chuck moving forward:
1. Cancellation of The Jay Leno Show– The only reason Chuck was on the bubble last season was because of Jay Leno. When NBC effectively cut 5 hours of prime-time, it put a bunch of shows on the bubble that would otherwise be safe. Because NBC was in such dire straits last year, shows with 2.3+ demos would’ve been safe. Now with 5 more hours free, NBC has a bunch of holes in its schedule. NBC will try to plug those holes with new shows, and that’s evident with its big order of pilots. But don’t take that as a sign Chuck may soon be, um, “chuckedâ€. On average, networks pick up 20-25% of their pilots. Not a very high percentage. For a network like NBC, having known shows with adequate ratings is much safer and the network could use those shows to grow new shows.
2. Impending cancellation of Trauma and/or Mercy – Neither show can even crack a 2.0 in demos. Both shows are likely gone, thus opening up more hours, making Chuck’s 2.44 look even better.
3. It’s on NBC- NBC is doing even worse this season. Leno failed epically. None of NBC’s new shows caught on. Former ratings giant LO:SVU got killed at the 9pm hour. Chuck is the only show to hold, even grow its audience.
4. Subway and Honda- Now I don’t really know what the financials are, but when you have a corporation that helped save the show (Subway) and another actively advertising on the show (Honda), it helps with negotiations come renewal time when you have corporations wanting to advertise on your show.
The season is still young and the ratings will fluctuate week after week. The ratings post-Olympics will be very important. If Chuck can hold to a 2.4-2.5 average in the demos, things look very good for a season 4. Chuck will have fairly smooth sailing until DWTS debuts on March 29th, bolstered by the promos NBC will air during the Olympics when it has a larger audience than its seen in years. Anything below a 2.4 average, it’s time to worry, but it’s definitely not the end of Chuck.
Another important thing to remember: Don’t focus on how Chuck does against the competition. It’ll probably stay in 4th place unless it goes up against repeats. Rather, focus on how Chuck does relative to other shows on NBC. That’s all that really matters at this point.
There will still be some hand-wringing about the ratings, and that’s fine. But it’s also important to remember that Chuck, at this point, is doing okay. Yes I’m a little bit worried, but it’s still early in the season. It’s more important how we do in March and April, especially April since that’s when NBC will make its decision on season 4. Having said that, I’m still cautiously optimistic for season 4.
Credit: All charts courtesy of snickrz.
Source for ratings info: pifeedback.com and TVByTheNumbers. If you want to follow ratings for Chuck or any other show, those two websites do a fabulous job reporting the numbers.
I guess it’s a glass half empty/half full situation.
When I look at that chart, I just see a steady downward drift. How far does it have to drift down before it falls off the cliff?
That steady downward drift can be seen the last two seasons. When has Chuck’s ratings really fallen off a cliff? If you take all the factors involved, Chuck never cratered in the ratings the past two seasons.
In terms of viewership Chuck didn’t lose much. Unfortunately, that doesn’t matter since demos are what pays the bills. The 100 thousand (or 300k if you want to use half hour numbers) unfortunately came from the demos.
The 2.2 in the demo is nothing to be worried about. Even TVBTN are not worried yet. It’s how Chuck does when it comes back March 1st and the following week, which will be a better indicator as to the health of the show.
But that is the point. This show hasn’t leveled out. If it keeps hemorraging like it has so far for the next 12 eps, then no one will need worry about season 4.
Obviously, I tend to be a “glass half empty” personality, so I see Chuck very much on the bubble come the end of the season.
Obviously, if the season ended right now, Chuck would be in for season 4. Unfortunately, I’ve seen nothing to convince me that Season 4 is close to a given.
Looking at the big picture Chuck seems to hold its own when you factor all the show has had to endure.The ratings are not off the charts but as it was stated in the article Chuck has maneged to hold on to its fans and even gained some.At this particular point we dont have to hit the panic button.If history repeates itself we should see a surge of fans around episode 12.My guess that with Nbc having the Olympic platform to advertise their shows it will draw large amounts of NEW fans to the show.Chuck is in the top 3 right now i don’t honestly belive that NBC would want to cancle a show that has proven it has serious followers.
The episodes air one day ahead in Canada. That might have an impact on the ratings? Many U.S. fans, I guess, are downloading the episodes from other sources 🙁
yah that might be part of the problem, never thought of that.
Hope last nights episode doesn’t do the damage i thnk it will – 3 weeks of letting shippers stew in there juices, add aspark and its likely to explode…
which will suck for me as it hasnt even started airing over in the UK
by last night ep 3.07 – which im thinking of dubbing “The Charah Nightmare made reality”
I’m hoping the 3 week break will give the more rabid shippers a chance to calm down…
I’m hoping in three weeks, the Ali Addler written show will be able to clean up the mess left last night.
A lot of people are missing the point. I have read that some “shippers” have gone off the deepend. Can’t help those poor folks.
However, a lot of folks negative reaction has been because Vs The Mask was just plain bad the last 15 to 30 minutes. It’s one thing that Chuck and Sarah aren’t together. I can deal with that, especially if the reasons seem real and logical. What happened last nigh seemed forced. Characters behaved in ways that didn’t seem real. And some folks feel/think it just because JS/CF want to inject some “tension”, “angst”, “suspense” into the show and will do so whether natural or not.
Some parts of the show seemed rushed. Some of the relationship changes probably needed two episodes to accomplish what was forced in 15 minutes last night.
I too agree some parts, well mainly the last 10 minutes, were rushed.
But this is a ratings article, and lets keep it on topic please
the point is NBC should have determine the ratings from viewers around the world. lol. I mean. I live in Malaysia and AXN is still airing season 2. how long do i have to wait for season 3?
I don’t think NBC makes any money from viewers around the world, save here in the States. And NBC certainly doesn’t make any money off of DVD sales anywhere in the world, period.
Warner Brothers owns the show. NBC only makes money off the ratings of the current season’s shows.
I don’t think we should be worried to much, i mean if chuck is one of NBC highest rated shows doesn’t it make sense to renew it?
hopefully logic will prevail
I am a Chinese fans, I have been have to support this chuck series. http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kw=%B3%AC%CA%D0%CC%D8%B9%A4
Based on last 7 episodes especially episode 3.07, its very disappointing. Chuck ratings deserved to drop. Did not meet most fans want. I’ll stop watching chuck. not worth my time.
I’m sorry you feel that way. But your declaration that it didn’t “meet what most fans wanted” is conjecture on your part. You have anything to back that up?
I would suggest we see how the writers bring this back around in the later episodes. We need to see Chuck once again ultimately value his family and friends over being a spy cause that is what attracted Sarah in the first place. Making Chuck a spy like Bryce should not be the goal if it means losing all the positive characteristics he portrayed in seasons 1 and 2.
honestly, in ep.307 at first, I didn’t like it. (Sarah being involved with Shaw and Chuck being involved with Hannah) But I realize, what’s good in the story is that how Chuck and Sarah’s relationship evolve given different situations. Even if they are not together, we all know that they still have feelings for each other, like when Chuck was worried about running out of time with the antidote. I can see that the story will be unpredictable and exciting. But it might be bad news for CHARAH fans.
About the ep 3.07 and the ratings,remember the 11th commandement. Though shall not sweat it.
First off, thanks to those who read the article 🙂 I hope it provided some help insights into the ratings.
Just did a quick look at the final ratings for Chuck, and this is where the quirkiness of the ratings come into play. A couple of points, and I hope I don’t lose you in this:
[b]*WARNING- LOTS OF NUMBERS AHEAD*[/b]
The previous low for Chuck this season was 3.04, which got 6.65 million viewers and a 2.5 in the demo. And it got a 3.8/6 household rating/share
This week, Chuck got 6.596 million viewers and a 2.2 in the demo. Household rating/share for this episode was a tiny bit higher- 3.9/6
So what does this mean?
I, and many here, have been reporting the demos. But what do they really mean in terms of how many people are watching? Let’s provide some hard numbers.
For example, Chuck’s latest episode garnered a 2.2. So what does that mean? It means that 2.2% of adults 18-49 are watching Chuck that night. The lastest number I could find from Nielsen is that there are 132 million people in the 18-49 bracket. Just simple multiplication, and you have 2.9 million viewers in the 18-49 for last nights episode.
For households, there are 114.9 million TV households in the U.S. So a 3.9 household means that 3.9% of households are tuning in.
So having said that:
In terms of households, there were actually [I][b]more[/b][/I] households tuning in compared to 3.04, and yet we had less viewers and a much worse demo. Chuck had nearly 115,000 more HH tuning in. So why less viewers? That can be attributed to the fact that the households that were watching had less people in them, thus the lower viewership numbers. Oh btw, Chuck had the same HH number as last week.
Which brings me to my other point: Viewership drop doesn’t correspond to demo drop.
Comparing the two lowest rated episodes to date (3.04 and 3.07) Chuck only lost 54,000 viewers. Now that doesn’t look to bad of a drop right? But that doesn’t really matter much in terms of renewal. In terms of 18-49 demos, Chuck lost a much larger 396,000 viewers :\'( So how can Chuck lose so much demo and so little in total viewership? That means more <17 year olds and 50+ are watching Chuck then the 18-49 group. While that's great and all, we don't need those viewers 😛 What we need is people in the 18-49.
What was the point of all this? No clue 😛 If you dig deep into the numbers, the fan base is still mostly intact. It's just different people are tuning in.
That’s it exactly. It’s the demo that matters. Total viewers do not matter if they aren’t in the demo. The nets make their money on the demo.
I’m not a Nielsen household. What I view or do not view doesn’t matter, because it isn’t counted.
Unfortunately, for Chuck, if I were a Nielsen household, I still wouldn’t count, since I’m way over the demo hot spot.
I am interested to find out what everyone thinks about an issue that we will face in a couple of weeks. The last time there was a major relationship blow up, Beefcake to Lethal Weapon, the show lost 800,000 viewers and a demo rating drop from 2.4 to 2.1. The show recovered about half of the audience by the “Ring” and a 2.4 demo. This time the feedback from the episode was even worse. I expect a similar situation from a ratings persepective allowing that everything is resolved in the next episode. If not, then we will probably see a further, but much less decline before the rebound. My question is based on what happened in the past, does the show’s creative team plan on this type of ratings situation when they do their show planning? Do they let the advertisers know this can happen in their business case or do they just ignore it, stick their head in the sand, and hope? The analytical side of this engineer just can’t fathom that they don’t know it’s going to effect the ratings negatively, but somehow see it as a positive part of telling the story.
Please read the article again. The reason why I don’t buy the “Lethal Weapon/Beefcake episode sucks leading to ratings drop” mantra is because no one has been able to come up with a logical explanation to it. If the reaction was so bad (same reaction as now) and Chuck regained all of its demo back (only thing that matters), those episodes clearly didn’t hurt the show.
What’s easily proven though is the “outside competition leading to ratings drop” mantra. Why did Chuck drop that week? Because DWTS debuted. If you look back at the ratings the week before and the night of the premiere of DWTS, ALL SHOWS, not just Chuck, dropped in the ratings compared to the previous week. In fact, other shows had bigger drops than Chuck. Go compare them at pifeedback.com.
Have no money to buy a car? You should not worry, just because this is possible to get the home loans to resolve such kind of problems. Thence take a small business loan to buy everything you want.